10/1/14: Improvement from Yesterday's Missed Opportunity... Up 22.9 Pips

If you happened to catch yesterday's post, you know I was frustrated because I saw a trade that I completely understood... and didn't pull the trigger.  The trade would have paid me close to 50 pips.  Well, I'm happy to say that I didn't make that same mistake again today.  More about that in a minute. 

First, let me tell you, I was in a pissy little mood this morning.  One of the great things about the Fx365i Institute is just the camaraderie that exists at the school.  Also, one of our room rules is to always be uptone.  So between simply showing up to class and being around like-minded traders, I slowly dragged myself into an emotional state where I was able to start analyzing the market.

Unfortunately, by the time we started today's SMP webinar, the market was in a pretty tight accumulation.  It had already moved up 135, down 90, and then back up 45 (hello market maker 45's!).  The market kept futzing around and I really couldn't form a strong directional bias.  

Head trader Wade Guth suggested that we were overall likely to be in a short market.  I more or less agreed with this, but I still didn't see any type of set up that I understood.  Then, all of a sudden, BOOM, it happened.  Unlike yesterday, I acted with conviction and took advantage of another great setup that was shown by the SMP software.  Let's walk through what I saw on this trade.

Classic maniuplation.  Short belief created.  Hardcore news manipulation spike with quick rotation going back short.

If you look at the hour chart, you can see that we were really ranging pretty tightly back and forth.  However, on the 5 minute chart, look at the candle just to the left of the the candles where I drew the yellow circle.  Notice how that was roughly the fifth 5 minute candle in a row that was going short.  Also, notice how it went just a little bit lower than the previous low (as shown by the dotted horizontal line).  When price did not continue to push down, I was very suspicious of what was going on.  The market makers had enticed the masses to go short.

Then, as you can see by the next candle, price shot up.  This happened right at the very end of the candle.  Notice how the blue buy-liquidity line had formed on the SMP software (man this software is awesome!).  As soon as price started dropping on the orange candle, it became apparent to me that we had just witnessed absolutely classic manipulation.  I got in going short just a couple of pips after price crossed back down below the blue line.  I had low risk on this trade because if price would have suddenly backed up above the blue line, I would have dumped the trade.

I did experience a pretty good amount of slippage as I only got in at about 1.8597.  However, the trade continued to go strong my way.  There was debate in the room about whether or not I should stay in the trade when I was up about 15-18 pips in the trade.  I was tempted to get out, but figured I had a good chance of price continuing to push down.  I moved my stop down so that even if it suddenly reversed, I would have got out with a small positive.  If this would have been "the move," I could have potentially seen something close to a triple digit trade.

Fortunately, price pushed down and I saw about a +25 in the trade.  When it stalled again, I no longer had as much confidence that it was going to continue to push down.  I also realized I was basically at my goal for the week.  The market backed up just a touch and I got out with a +22.9.  I'm very happy with that result.

So my next debate is to decide whether or not I should trade the rest of the week.  The more conservative members of Fx365i's leadership group would tell me not to trade the rest of the week because I'm at my goal.  The more aggressive thinkers would say that I'm seeing the market well and to take advantage.  So what am I planning to do?  I believe I may trade again this week, but only if I see something I think I really understand and STRONGLY believe in.  European rate decision and Non-Farm payroll are coming up the next two days and I am damn well determined not to give the market makers my pips back.

Thanks for the support.  Let me know what you think of this trade and how your trading is going.  You can comment on the post or email me at pipaddict73@gmail.com.