Tuesday, September 30, 2014

9.30.14 - A Missed Opportunity

There was a great trade on the Smart Money Profile (SMP) software today.  I absolutely saw it and didn't take it. I'm not exactly sure why, but more than anything else, I basically didn't have the courage to click in the trade.  Here was the beautiful setup the software gave us:

Notice the yellow circle I have drawn on the 5 minute chart.  As the market was moving up slowly for the previous hour, I started feeling like the market makers were creating belief and were likely to snap the market back short.  At the time, I was looking for price to hit the blue buy-liquidity line at 1.8605.

However, SMP then added the green accumulation dot and gave us a new blue liquidity line where I drew the yellow circle.  I immediately saw this as a great entry to go short.  Why didn't I get in?  I go back to something QuickStart instructor LaCurtis says over and over, "You're afraid to take a negative."  This was a poor mistake on my part.  This was a very low risk entry.  Wade Guth, head trader at Fx365i even called out that this could be a spot to take the market short.  However, at that point, I felt like I had missed my entry and didn't want to chase the market short.

SMP showed us an amazing trade and gave us beautiful entry.  Several people in our class pulled 20-40 pips out of the trade.  I actually saw the trade very early and SHOULD have pulled a 40+ pip trade.  I'm excited that I saw the trade and read it correctly, but I'm very disappointed in my lack of courage to pull the trigger.  The trade gave me excellent risk management and an excellent profit target and the software showed us the entry.  You literally can't ask for anything else.

Could woulda shoulda doesn't cut it.  My thought to myself for today is when I see something I understand and there is opportunity for a good profit, I MUST take those trades.  It's idiotic to not take a trade like today's excellent setup.  The thing that's most important for me now is to not get stupid and try and make up for it by getting in on too many trades, or taking worse trades that don't have low risk.  The market will be here tomorrow and good trades will present themselves again.

How about you?  How was your trading today?

Monday, September 29, 2014

9/29/14: Up 10 Pips Today! ---> Busting the Slump

I'm happy to report I am actually UP 10+ Pips for the day on two trades!  Not only am I sick of the slump, but I'm getting pretty sick of talking and writing about it, so hopefully I won't have to for much longer.  However, it doesn't pay to be in denial (ask me how I know, Good Lord ask me how I know) and I promised that I would share what steps I'm taking to make the turn to become a proficient, disciplined and profitable trader.
  
It started two weeks ago today when we had our last student council meeting at Fx365i.  I was there a few minutes early along with a couple of other student council members.  I noticed the "Always" poster in the room.  The Always poster is pretty much the first thing that we are shown at Fx365i.  I had actually seen it hanging in the institute before I even signed up.  

As I was reading the poster about these basic tenets of how to become a solid trader, I realized I had not been following many of the guiding principles.  Remember, this is called the ALWAYS poster.  For me it was more like the once in while or not at all poster.  We were all quiet in the room when instructor (and major league pip-collector) Ira Barnes said, "Well someone say something."  So I piped up, "Man, I've got to do a way better job of this following this Always poster."  Ira, who is one of the most supportive / positive people I know, simply replied, "Yeah, Trading 101."  He probably had no idea, but his slightly gruff tone at that moment was exactly the kick in the ass I needed to realize what a bad student I have been.  The leadership meeting was about to begin, but that was the moment I realized I needed to make some serious changes.

Change #1: Starting This Trading Blog
I strongly believe in the power of writing about your thoughts, but I realized I had not been keeping great notes.  Even before I deleted my entire trading log out of sheer frustration, the only comments I was writing out were discussing the specifics of my trades.  I wasn't taking notes when the instructors would explain things in class, I wasn't keeping a trading journal, I wasn't taking notes when we would discuss chapters from The Forex Mindset... nothing.  Basically, all I was doing was looking for trades.  Well guess what, you can't go look for trades, you have to let trades come to you.  And, as the Always Poster says, you have to ALWAYS continue to educate yourself on how the market works.  Looking back, it's no surprise that my trading was terrible. So, to anyone who is reading this, I thank you from the bottom of my heart.  My hope is that you will be able to avoid making the same mistakes I make - while mirroring the behaviors that bring me success.

Change #2: Letting My Support System Help Me
During my struggles, I was not talking to anyone about how poorly my trading was going.  I tried my best to stay upbeat, but let me tell you, even though I might have left class most days with a friendly "See you tomorrow," when I would get in my car, more often than not I would let out a wicked scream of frustration and drop a few f-bombs for good measure.  If you don't think trading can become a highly emotional situation, you are sorely mistaken.  Ask me how I know.

Finally, after I started the blog, one of the consultants at the school talked to me about what I had written.  Rather than clamming up or saying "Don't worry about me, I'll be fine," I opened up and had an honest conversation about what was going on.  Maybe more importantly, I actually listened to what I was being told.  This person's support has been unwavering since day one.  In case you are reading this, you know who you are and I can't thank you enough.

In a previous post, I mentioned that I have been struggling at my "day job" also.  I took the same approach and sought out help again.  I pulled my manager aside and said I was disappointed with my performance.  I told him I didn't want him to think I was screwing off or not caring.  I explained how my trading struggles have been causing me major stress and despite my best efforts, I sometimes find myself staring blankly at my computer screens.  Once again, this person was incredibly supportive.  He gave me some suggestions and a little pep talk.  I feel much better about how I'm going to perform at work moving forwards as well.  I realize how blessed I am to have a boss like this and it inspires me to continue to do better because I don't want to disappoint him.

Change #3: Being More Determined
I really try not to be that pompous guy who everyone hates.  However, I think I went too far in trying to be Mr Nice Guy.  It sucks to have to say this, but I've been soft.  Softer than a jelly donut dammit.  

Simply put, I have told myself I need to compete harder in every facet of my life.  Compete harder to be a better trader, compete harder to lose the 15-18 pounds I want to lose, compete harder at work, compete harder with myself to be a better husband, compete harder with myself and be disciplined in every facet of my life.  

I have hardly played any competitive sports lately, but I'm going to try and find something to get back into (probably playing tennis) and I'm going to fight like hell to win.  The last time I played a set of tennis, I competed a little, and I did win, but I remember feeling like my opponent wanted it more than me.  I can't have that.  I'm determined to push myself harder.  WIN!

Now, it's an interesting thing to try and push yourself harder in trading because unlike other facets of your life, it doesn't just mean, Go, Go Go.  However, writing the blog, taking notes, reading more, paying more attention when I read, being a more active listener, and being extremely disciplined in letting trades come to me (and in risk management) are things I must do in order to realize my dreams of becoming a highly profitable trader.

I see now I have a chance to put the slump squarely in the my rear view mirror and start WINNING!  I'm looking forward to sharing my journey with everyone as I push forward.

I hope you enjoy reading, I'd love to hear your comments about your own trading.

Here is a screenshot of my two WINNING trades in the Smart Money Profile software:



-Cy



Sunday, September 28, 2014

9/26/14: The Slump Takes a Breath; Work To Be Done

Well, the plan for this post was to talk about the steps I’m taking to break out of the slump, but today’s trading was incredibly interesting and provided some great lessons, so I thought I’d share about that instead.

First, the good
1.      I read the market beautifully today.  I thought it would move up to about 1.8575 and then crash hard.  That’s exactly what it did!  I’m very happy with that.

2.      After starting the day down over 35 pips on my first two trades, I actually took several winning trades today and was positive for the day a couple of times.

Now the bad:
1.      If you’re paying close attention, you probably realize that the good in #2 also represents something bad.  I took close to 15 trade today.  I sort of justify it because I tell myself I’m just learning on the new Smart Money Profile (SMP)software, but at the same time, I KNOW I MUST START SETTING EXCELLENT TRADING HABITS.  Taking 15 trades in a day is NOT a good trading habit.

2.      First of all, when the market didn’t move initially when the GDP # was released, I decided my forecast of a strong push up followed by a crash down was wrong.  I abandoned my forecast and went short.  Then, when it started to break long, I chased it and it took a fat breath back against me.  This is like writing a recurring theme on how NOT to trade.

3.      Then, when the market followed my forecast and pushed up to 1.8580 and started to turn, I got decent entry (not terrific by any means, but reasonably good) at 1.8570.  Now, with the SMP system, we are target trading.  Based on that, I should have been trading to the yellow liquidity line at 1.8526.  Obviously the market is extremely likely to take some breaths inside a move going from 1.8570 to 1.8526.  The chart below shows 5 minute candles.  So in about 15 minutes, I could have collected 45 pips if I would have just had the guts to stay in the trade.




Sadly, instead of just staying in the trade like I’m supposed to, I got scared off like a little baby when the market took a little breath and got out at 1.8562.  Now, given the state of my uber-slump, it is understandable why I took a profit.  I hadn’t taken a profitable trade in weeks, so it was great to see something.  However, this is NOT the style of trading we are looking for on this platform.  At the time, I took the profit, I thought “Good job, I finally took a positive.”  In reality, I had forecast the market perfectly, entered the trade nicely, but then emotionally fell apart when it was time to execute my trading plan.  Damn.

I made this mistake a number of times as I kept catching little bits and pieces of the short market.  The worst part of what I was doing was taking a positive trade and then not even waiting for a significant breath back before getting in again.  In other words, I was giving up my better entry points for worse ones after only capturing 5-8 pips – and then getting back in and paying a 3.3 pip commission.  This is ABSOLUTE STUPIDITY.  If I’m going to target trade, then I need to stay in the trade and execute my trading plan.  If I do decide to get out, I MUST wait for a breath back before trying to enter again.  This is really crucial.  Basic.  Simple.  Critical. But somehow I didn’t do it today.
Now, one thing I’m concerned about is not staying married to a trading plan when it’s going against me.  This will be something I have to learn to balance.  When do you immediately realize you were wrong and actually take the other side of the trade and when do you wait and re-evaluate.  I’ve seen Shane flip the switch when he realize he was wrong and go from taking a -7 in a short to suddenly taking a +25 or more in a long.  Maybe I’m just not ready to do that yet.  Maybe it’s better if I just wait if I realize things aren’t going according to plan.  I suppose it all depends on whether or not I really understand what I’m starting to see.


I’d love to hear your thoughts about all of this.  Thanks for reading.  See you next time!

9/25/14: The Slump Lives… How did we get here?

Well, I must admit, writing the blog post has made me feel better.  I’m determined to compete harder at work and I know I’m going to come out of this slump and become a highly profitable and disciplined trader.  Prior to today’s trading session, I spoke with one of the consultants at the institute today and that talk had me feeling positive also. 

So what about the slump?  Sadly, the slump is still going strong.  Two trades today, both big losers.  However, for the first time in I can’t even remember, I actually saw a decent sized positive in one of the trades with a +11.  I typically am happy to take 10’s when I see them, but because we are learning on the new Smart Money platform, I wanted to let it ride and see if it would hit the target, which was about 65 pips away (that would be a nice way to break out of a slump!).  Needless to say, the market turned the other way and I took a huge loss on the trade.  However, I am not upset by any  of this.  I’m learning a new system and learned valuable lessons about the value of good entry, taking profits when they are available, and managing risk with the new Smart Money system.  I’ve lotted way down, so despite being down over 45 pips today, the dollar loss was extremely minimal.

Today’s topic is more about what put me in this monster spin cycle.  I have identified a few pretty easy to see things that have put me in the spin cycle:

1.      Trading The Wrong Lot Size  Prior to the slump, I was trading reasonably well.  Not great, but winning on far more trades than I was losing.  I wasn’t positive on the pips, because I was taking some big negatives, but I told myself “OK, I get this now.  All I have to do is limit the losses to 10 pips and under and I’ll be well into the positive.”  So I abandoned my plan to slowly and steadily move up the lot ladder and skipped about 5 levels on the lot ladder.  BIG MISTAKE!  By the way, I have to say that Fx365i has warned against making this stupid move about a million times, but I was ready to start going up that lot ladder and I was going to hit it! 

So, how many positive trades did I do at the higher lot size before the slump started?  Ten? Five? Three?  Ha – TRY ZERO!!  I kid you not.  I went from winning 70% of the time to ice cold.  Traders Beware: it is a HUGE MISTAKE to lot up more quickly than you are ready for.  Please, I beg of you, trust me on this.  I spoke to another student today who did the same thing with the exact same results.  Actually this trader skipped about 10 levels on the lot ladder and lost money even faster than I did.  Save yourself hundreds of dollars by going slowly and steadily up the lot ladder.  As the school has said a thousand times, the Forex market isn’t going anywhere, so take your time… it’s in your best interests.

2.      Impatience and an Absolute Lack of Discipline  This is where it gets ugly.  I mean really ugly.  As anyone who has been at the institute knows, anything over 2 trades in a day probably means you are overtrading.  With very few exceptions, taking five trades in a day is pretty ridiculous and a recipe for a terrible day.  However, once I took a couple of quick losses at the higher lot size, what happened?  Read on for the horror….

SO, like I said, I had taken a few losses at the higher lot size.  I was frustrated, but still felt like my trading was going well and I just had a few trades go against me.  I was determined not to let that affect me.  Later that week, we had major news.  I was excited.  I have enough experience to where I know not to trade too early on high news.  I know it’s way too whippy and I have learned to stay out until the initial craziness is over.  I was ready for a HUGE day.  I couldn’t wait to write some monster numbers on the board for the class to see.

However, as LaCurtis has cautioned a gazillion times, there was a little voice on my shoulder said I better go get those pips back that I had lost earlier in the week.  So the news hits.  It starts whipping around like crazy and I stayed out for about all of about, oh… maybe 90 seconds.  Then someone inside my head (who I don’t recognize) said, “Screw it, I’m going for it.  I think I know what’s going to happen, maybe I’ll hit one out of the park.  Even if I don’t, it’s not biggie, I’ll wait for it to calm down and I’ll be able to recover.”  Well, of course, I got stopped out quickly on my first trade.  OK, so no biggie right?  Just wait for it to calm down and then take some smarter trades.
 
So what did I do? I said, “Well that was silly, I only ran a 12 pip stop on high news.  Let’s at least give ourselves a chance to get this one right.”  I moved my stop to 20 pips, waited for about 5 whole minutes this time, and blatantly and knowingly chased a trade.  You literally cannot be much more stupid.  Of course, the trade snapped hard against me and stopped me out within a matter of seconds.  Oh, about not being able to be much more stupid?  WRONG!  The horror is about to get serious.

Over the next few hours I took over 20 trades.  I’m literally ashamed to type it out even weeks later.  I won on a few and lost on more.  Most of the losses were bigger than the wins.  I left the school mad as hell at myself.  While driving to work, I continued to get into trade after trade.  Realize, these trades are being placed on my cell while driving in my car on the freeway.  Beyond the obvious terrible behavior of interacting with my phone that much on the freeway, do you really think I was clearly analyzing trade setups?  There are no indicators on the phone.  Oh, there’s also no stop loss on the phone, so I’m constantly watching the screen and clicking in and out of losing trade after losing trade.  Oh, by the way, I kept trading on my phone during my work day.  By the time the day was done, I had taken 30 trades.  30.  Freakin.  Trades. 

The good news was that there was more big news coming out the next day.  I of course gave myself a good talking to that night and told myself I was going to take it much easier and not make the same incredibly dumb mistakes.  I was right.  I ‘only’ took 20 trades that day. 

Since then, I calmed the trading way down.  No more double-digit trading days.  Well, there was one a couple of days later, but none in the last few weeks.  The most trades I’ve done in a day are 4 or 5.  Most days I’ve been doing anywhere from 0 – 2 trades.   However, the damage was already done.  My confidence was smashed to a pulp.  I had put myself so unbelievably out of sync with the market, I’m still trying to recover weeks later. 

I believe I’m going to pull out of it soon.  I’m practicing much better habits and have rededicated myself to learning my craft.  Fellow traders, especially those of you who trade with the institute: Don’t put yourself through this vicious cycle.  It’s painful and it’s expensive.  If you have taken more than a few losing trades, step away and pull a fellow trader aside.  If you’re an online trader, call your mentor, call LaCurtis, call someone who can help you step away from the screen and JUST STOP TRADING.  Believe me, if you don’t do it and you keep trading, you’re going to regret it and you will endure your own Horror.

3.      Although my astoundingly bad behavior from a few weeks ago was undoubtedly the crux of this mind-numbing slump, another contributing factor has also been the fact that I have been learning some brand new information.  In particular, the concept of average price and how it affects the market was recently unrolled to the student at Fx365i.  The concepts are great and our instructors have used the new concepts to pull a great many large positive trades.

However, just like lotting up too quickly and just like being far too impatient, I wanted to use this information too quickly.  As I was just starting to understand some of the basic concepts of average price and how the market reacts to these accumulation points, I tried to make them the backbone of my trading methodology.  Instead of using the information as clues to help with momentum trading on the Wealth Smart suite, I basically forgot all about all my principles on how to trade the Wealth Smart indicators.  This was yet another HUGE mistake.  My risk management and entry points went right out the window.  Not coincidentally, so did my positive trades. Fellow traders, when you learn something new, slowly incorporate it into your trading methodology, but remember that your basic principles must still be absolutely adhered to.  Fail to do so and you can forget about seeing positive trades.

4.      The last cause of this slump that I have identified is pride/ego and embarrassment.  I was too proud to go up to the board in class and write down my negative trades for everyone to see.  I let my ego stop me from walking up to my friend and lead instructor LaCurtis and say, “I need some help.  I’ve lost on 5 (7? 10? 12?) trades today.”  It took 3 weeks of losses before I finally blurted out in class, “I am the worst trader in the room.  I haven’t had a positive trade in weeks.”  I was so stupid, I even made sure my computer was on mute so no one would hear me clicking in and out of a trade every 5 minutes.

Fellow Fx365i traders, don’t do this to yourself.  The stress is puts on you is unbelievable.  The shame you feel is highly palpable and extremely powerful.  The toll on your trading account is significant.  You don’t have to let it get this bad.  If you are struggling, don’t be afraid to ask LaCurtis to analyze your trade.  Blurt something out in class.  If you’re not sure who to talk to and you feel like you’re starting to do something stupid, come and talk to me.  As you have read here, I have been there and done that.  As the famous saying around the institute goes… “Ask Me How I Know.”

Thanks to anyone who has read this.  I hope you found it helpful.  Hopefully you are saying to yourself, “Man, what an IDIOT!  I will NEVER EVER behave anything like that.”  Hopefully you are right and you never do these kinds of things.  However, please remember you can come to almost anyone at the institute from the instructors to the students if the need arises.


My next post will focus on some of the things I am doing to fight my way out of this hole I have dug myself into.  Thanks again for reading, see you next time!

9/23/14: My Epic Trading Slump

Man, when it rains it pours.  My trading slump is absolutely epic at this point.  I can’t even remember the last winner I had – we’re literally talking weeks.  I took a few days to get back in sync with the market without taking a trade, but guess what?  When I started trading again, I kept losing.  I’ve been so frustrated with my trading I actually deleted my trading log because I couldn’t take seeing negative trade after negative trade after negative trade.  Probably the most amazing thing about this slump is that we have been in an ideal market for pulling tons of positive pips.  I trade at an institute called Fx365i and the instruction we receive is spot on – many traders were pulling lots of positive trades last week.  In fact, one trader was up 500 pips just last week! Man, I can’t tell you how much it hurts to suck this bad at something that means so much to me. 
My frustration is starting to take a toll on me.  My performance at work is clearly less than ideal.  I’m trying to focus, but the overall stress is definitely making it hard to focus for any sustained period of time.  Until yesterday, I had done a reasonably good job of not getting angry in other parts of my life, but last night I started to snap.  I was already late in getting to bed (my own undisciplined fault) when I realized I promised my wife I would vacuum out the cracks of the couch.  It was literally a two minute task and I was pissed as if that two minutes was going to make a difference when I was already an hour late (yeah, that’s logical…).  Then, I got pinched by the vacuum tool I was using and started swearing as if I had been shot in the arm by a 9mm.  I angrily vacuumed the couch (for 90 seconds).  Then, as I was wrapping up the cord, I banged my thumb and started slamming the vacuum cleaner on the ground like an idiot.  Not exactly mature behavior.
So of course I decided to set my alarm later than usual in order to make up for going to bed over an hour behind schedule.  The next morning I get to Fx365i 30 minutes behind schedule.  I’m doing my pre-session and can clearly see the market is moving.  As I’m measuring some average price lines, LaCurtis (the institute’s lead instructor) points out that there is a good pull back to enter the trade.  It’s truly a beautiful set up.  I mean, this is EXACTLY what we look for.  Great pressures, the razor was strong on all time frames.  Really nice. 
So, do I take the trade?  Of course not.  I keep taking my pre-session measurements thinking I’m going to see a better pull back.  By the time I look again, I have missed the damn trade.  This is so infuriating.  My own lack of discipline from the night before caused me to miss a super easy 20+ pip trade.  In addition, my lack of paying close attention to the pressures (the buying pressure on the 15 was over 500, meaning we probably wouldn’t see a pull back super close to the 2min trend break), caused me to miss this incredibly easy trade.  Pretty much everyone at the institute today got the trade and pulled enough pips to make their goal for the day… but not me.  Man, talk about feeling like a total fu**ing moron… again.  Like I said, it hurts.  It hurts bad.
So… I have decided to start this trading journal / blog.  Actually I have been meaning to do a blog for quite some time now.  My initial plan was to do a youtube channel.  My channel has been set up for some time, but I haven’t used it.  I guess I’m more comfortable writing out this blog, so that’s where I’m going to start.  Hopefully it will grow into a YouTube channel also.
The crazy thing about this horrific soul-sucking slump is that I feel like I’m actually starting to see the market more clearly than ever before.  I think it’s probably adding to my frustration and anger because it’s obviously not translating into anything remotely resembling success.
To add to everything, I am now part of a beta test group for Fx365i’s new Smart Money software.  The few people that have been using the new software prior to the beta group have raved about it, so I’m excited.  I’m also very nervous because as I said, I feel like I’m starting to see things more clearly in the old software and am about to bust out of this mega-slump in a big way. 
So why am I doing the beta test?  First of all, I want to give back to the institute whenever I can.  From the owners to the instructors to the best traders in the class to the newest students, everyone at the institute forms a great community.  If I have a chance to give back, it is truly the least I can do.  I must admit, my current finances are extremely tight, so I am definitely nervous about whatever new fees are going to be associated with the new Smart Money Profile (SMP) after the beta testing is over.  However, even if I love the SMP, but am financially forced to go back to the Wealth Smart trading suite, at least I will feel like I had the opportunity to help contribute to the ongoing success of Fx365i.  In the end, the Wealth Smart software is still outstanding and there are people consistently pulling pips (even 500 pips in a week!!!), so there are no excuses.

Well, this has been a rambling start, but at least I have finally put something together.  I look forward to continuing to put my thoughts together.  I believe putting myself and my trading out there will help me and I hope it helps anyone who reads.  Comments and thoughts are always welcome.