Well, the plan for this post was to
talk about the steps I’m taking to break out of the slump, but today’s trading
was incredibly interesting and provided some great lessons, so I thought I’d
share about that instead.
First, the good:
1.
I read the market
beautifully today. I thought it would
move up to about 1.8575 and then crash hard.
That’s exactly what it did! I’m
very happy with that.
2.
After starting the day
down over 35 pips on my first two trades, I actually took several winning
trades today and was positive for the day a couple of times.
Now the bad:
1.
If you’re paying close
attention, you probably realize that the good in #2 also represents something
bad. I took close to 15 trade
today. I sort of justify it because I
tell myself I’m just learning on the new Smart Money Profile (SMP)software, but
at the same time, I KNOW I MUST START SETTING EXCELLENT TRADING HABITS. Taking 15 trades in a day is NOT a good
trading habit.
2.
First of all, when the
market didn’t move initially when the GDP # was released, I decided my forecast
of a strong push up followed by a crash down was wrong. I abandoned my forecast and went short. Then, when it started to break long, I chased
it and it took a fat breath back against me.
This is like writing a recurring theme on how NOT to trade.
3.
Then, when the market followed
my forecast and pushed up to 1.8580 and started to turn, I got decent entry (not
terrific by any means, but reasonably good) at 1.8570. Now, with the SMP system, we are target
trading. Based on that, I should have
been trading to the yellow liquidity line at 1.8526. Obviously the market is extremely likely to
take some breaths inside a move going from 1.8570 to 1.8526. The chart below shows 5 minute candles. So in about 15 minutes, I could have
collected 45 pips if I would have just had the guts to stay in the trade.
Sadly, instead of
just staying in the trade like I’m supposed to, I got scared off like a little baby
when the market took a little breath and got out at 1.8562. Now, given the state of my uber-slump, it is
understandable why I took a profit. I
hadn’t taken a profitable trade in weeks, so it was great to see
something. However, this is NOT the style
of trading we are looking for on this platform.
At the time, I took the profit, I thought “Good job, I finally took a
positive.” In reality, I had forecast
the market perfectly, entered the trade nicely, but then emotionally fell apart
when it was time to execute my trading plan.
Damn.
I made this mistake
a number of times as I kept catching little bits and pieces of the short
market. The worst part of what I was
doing was taking a positive trade and then not even waiting for a significant
breath back before getting in again. In
other words, I was giving up my better entry points for worse ones after only
capturing 5-8 pips – and then getting back in and paying a 3.3 pip commission. This is ABSOLUTE STUPIDITY. If I’m going to target trade, then I need to
stay in the trade and execute my trading plan.
If I do decide to get out, I MUST wait for a breath back before trying
to enter again. This is really crucial. Basic.
Simple. Critical. But somehow I
didn’t do it today.
Now, one thing I’m concerned about is
not staying married to a trading plan when it’s going against me. This will be something I have to learn to
balance. When do you immediately realize
you were wrong and actually take the other side of the trade and when do you
wait and re-evaluate. I’ve seen Shane
flip the switch when he realize he was wrong and go from taking a -7 in a short
to suddenly taking a +25 or more in a long.
Maybe I’m just not ready to do that yet.
Maybe it’s better if I just wait if I realize things aren’t going according
to plan. I suppose it all depends on
whether or not I really understand what I’m starting to see.
I’d love to hear your thoughts about
all of this. Thanks for reading. See you next time!
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