Risk Management Salvaged My Week

Quick Note: I have only posted my last couple of entries onto the Fx365i website's blog.  I will be adding those posts onto this blog soon.  I will be keeping both up to date.

Risk management really saved me from having a truly terrible week last week.  My win-loss record was only 3 wins vs 9 losses.  One of those wins was less than 3 pips.  Without solid risk management, I could have seen myself down a boatload of pips.  However, I managed to keep it together and was down a relatively modest 19 pips for the week.  Obviously I'm not proud of going 3 for 12 and being down for the week, but I sure am glad I kept my losses under control!

After trading for a year, I've heard some different theories on risk management.  Some people say you have to give a trade a fair amount of room.  Trying to decide just how much room is "fair" depends on where you "know you are wrong."  I believe this is a concept that takes screen time to fully understand.  In order to avoid taking large losses with this theory, it is critical to have sharp, well-placed entries.  If you chase a trade, it can be a long ride down to find out you were truly wrong.  We'll talk more about this in a minute.

Another theory I've heard is that as soon as a trade doesn't behave exactly as you expected it to, get out of the trade.  The problem is this isn't our business - it's the market makers' business.  If we knew exactly how trades were going to behave, we'd all be batting a thousand!  However, this concept certainly has a lot of merit.  As is so often the case, it's the subtle nuances that make all the difference.  For example, in an SMP trade, if you get a market maker dot, and you expect price to hold below that dot, if price gets above the dot, Dump The Trade!  The same idea holds true for Wealth Smart traders taking a trade up against trend break.  It's so tempting to just want to be right and let the it play out further... only to watch the trade go further against you.  To be successful, you must not only plan a trade, but you must then trade that plan.

I have also heard a theory that you should run a large stop, sometimes as large as 30 - 50 pips.  The thought behind this is that if you see that the trade is going against you, at some point it will take a breath coming back your way and allow you to get out without as big of a loss.  This is one theory that absolutely doesn't work for me on multiple levels.  First of all, if you run a huge stop, guess what?  PRICE CAN HIT IT!  Ask me how I know.  Nearly every time I have taken a large risk on a trade, I have hit my stop.   Additionally, when it does start breathing back in your favor, guess what?  You don't want to get out!  You feel like the trade is finally going your way and you decision to run such a large stop is paying off.  Until 10 seconds later when price snaps hard and stops you out.  To each their own, but that style of risk management is definitely not for me.

I truly believe you have to find your own style of trading and your own style of risk management.  I like to run a tight stop.  In fact, my stop is set at just 10 pips.  On most of my trades, I will almost immediately tighten my stop up even a couple more pips.  A huge part of the reason for this is that I am absolutely useless at clicking out of a trade when it is going against me.  Whether it is pride, ego, blind optimism, or just plain stupidity, I constantly find reasons to stay in the trade.  However, if I have moved my stop to  minus 6 or 8 pips, I no longer have to worry about it.

Now, I also believe setting my stop at a place where I know I was wrong about the trade.  In order to accomplish this, I truly have to focus on my entries.  For example, I frequently want to enter close to a market maker dot (if you are a Wealth Smart trader, think about trying to get in close to trend break).  Let's say we're trying to go long.  The further price moves above that dot, or above trend break, the larger the negative we would have to take before knowing we were wrong.  Why?  Because we would know we were wrong when price moved below the dot or snapped short through trend break.  If we entered the trade 10 pips above the dot or trend break, there is too much risk.  If we entered 2 or 3 pips above, we have managed our risk much more efficiently.

Well, I hope this is helpful to fellow traders.  Find your own style of risk management that makes sense to you.  As for me, I need to consistently stick with my risk management principles.  But to tell you the truth, I'm sick of talking about losing.  I need to be more patient and find better trades.  Hopefully over the upcoming weeks, we can discuss when to exit trades for profit!

I always love hearing from fellow traders.  Please reach out to me at pipaddict73@gmail.com.  

Happy Pip Hunting!

10/2/14: No Trades, Protecting my Pips... Commitment to Excellence

Coming into today, I was basically at my goal for the week.  The goal for this week was to be up 25 to 35 pips.  After yesterday, I was up 33.6 pips.  My debate coming for today and tomorrow was whether to continue trading.  The more conservative members of the Fx365i senior leadership would argue against trading and the more aggressive members would say to trade when you see good opportunity.  I told myself I would only trade if I saw something I felt extremely strongly about.

I did see a couple of trade set ups I felt good about today, but I chose to be conservative and did not trade.  This is proving to be both good and bad.  The good news is that I am still at my goal for the week.  As you may know, this is the first time in a month I have not been down dozens of pips, so this is a great thing!  So, what is the bad side of it?

The bad side is that I'm wondering if I'm still spinning from the severe emotional beatings I took over the past month (self-inflicted as they may have been).  If I'm seeing good setups, why am I not taking the trades?  On Tuesday, I didn't take a trade that set up perfectly and I regretted it.  On Wednesday, I took a similar trade and it paid me 22.9 pips.  The two trade setups I saw today both went very strongly in the direction I expected.  I could potentially have pulled around 80 pips on them.  So how do I continue to grow as a trader at this moment?

In order to keep my mind right and keep improving, my take on all of this is:

1. I am really happy with how I am seeing the market and beginning to understand the amazing new Smart Money Profile (SMP) software.
2. There is nothing wrong with being extremely conservative once I have reached my goal for the week.  If I was up 50 for the week, maybe then I would feel like I was playing with house money and could afford to take a potential 10-12 pip loss and still be very happy with the week.  However, if I took that loss now, I would not meet my target for the week.
3. I have decided I am absolutely not going to trade tomorrow.  I know it is going to be maddening if I see an easy entry and it runs for a monster trade, but we all know the GBP/AUD runs all the time and there will be more trades next week and beyond.  I will be watching closely in order to stay in tune with the market, but I will not have my rate indicator up.

Speaking of continuing to improve, I made the time last night to read Chapter 4 of The Forex Mindset, aka "The Book."  The commitment to excellence (no, not a Raiders reference) is such a phenomenal concept.  The habits we create on a daily basis and the small decisions to do the right thing on the little tiny stuff in our lives make a huge difference.  The chapter starts with quote by Aristotle.  I don't have it in front of me, but the gist is that you don't do the right thing because you have virtue, but rather you have virtue because you consistently do the right thing.  Continually striving for excellence and continual improvement, in all facets of our lives is not only a noble goal, but will also make us indefinitely better traders.

To everyone who is planning to trade non-farm payroll tomorrow, be careful.  It's a great day to lose a boatload of pips - especially if you start getting emotional or are trading a higher lot size than you are ready for.  Ask me how I know.  Good luck tomorrow and I can't wait to start trading again next week.